The federal employees who were forced out by his administration’s aggressive downsizing effort were now doing just fine—better than fine, in fact—thriving in the private sector with larger paychecks and better futures, President Trump stated bluntly and without seeming hesitation. It’s the kind of statement that seems almost plausible at first, but after a short while, it begins to fall apart.
Last month, Trump claimed without providing any proof that former federal employees are now earning more money in the private sector and said he doesn’t feel bad about the downsizing. However, not everyone has had that experience.
| Initiative Name | Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) |
| Established | January 20, 2025 (Executive Order) |
| Led By | Elon Musk (January–May 2025), later institutionalized under Trump administration |
| Stated Goal | Eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse; cut up to $2 trillion in federal spending |
| Claimed Savings | $215 billion (contested by independent analysts and the GAO) |
| Workers Who Left Federal Payroll | Over 350,000 (buyouts, resignations, retirements, layoffs) |
| Net Workforce Reduction | ~242,000 after new hires; roughly 10% of civilian federal workforce |
| Agencies Most Impacted | USAID, CDC, Education Dept., DOJ Civil Rights Division, USIP, NWS |
| Private Sector Job Market Response | Job postings from top 25 federal contractors fell 15% since January 2026 |
| Workers Rehired by Agencies | Thousands recalled — CDC, NWS, FDA, USDA, among others |
| Key Watchdog Finding | GAO found layoffs at Education Dept.’s civil rights division may have cost $38 million |
| Elon Musk’s Own Assessment | DOGE was “somewhat successful” — he would not do it again |
CNN And a completely different picture emerges when you start listening to the people who are actually going through this, such as the civil rights investigators matching paint at hardware stores, the USDA analysts turned hermits, and the malaria experts turned swim instructors. One that the White House doesn’t seem all that eager to acknowledge.
One of those professions that sounds impressive at dinner parties was Ashley Garley’s. She managed programs with real stakes, traveled abroad, and worked at the nexus of public health and diplomacy as a malaria expert with USAID. Then came the freeze on foreign aid in late January 2025. Almost overnight, her job disappeared. Over a year later, she works as a part-time swimming instructor at her Maryland county pool.
“My world has gotten very small, very quickly,” she said to reporters. It’s difficult to ignore that statement for a long time.
The Office of Personnel Management reports that since President Trump began his second term on January 20, 2025, more than 350,000 employees have left the federal government’s payroll. Between inauguration day and December, the federal workforce decreased by 242,000 employees, or slightly more than 10%, after taking new hires into account. It’s not a trim, CNN.
That represents a substantial structural shift in the way the American government functions, carried out swiftly and, by most accounts, with little thought given to what would happen next.
The majority of the workers who left are specialized, educated, and entering a declining white-collar job market. Since January 2026, job postings in the private sector from the top 25 federal contractors have decreased by 15%; the industry most likely to absorb displaced talent withdrew at the same time those workers entered the market.
The timing was almost cruelly ironic in hindsight. Hundreds of thousands of skilled workers were forced out by the government at the exact moment when potential private employers started to back off.
Some people seem to have actually landed on their feet. Former USDA investigative analyst and Iraq War veteran Casey Hollowell describes himself as having “become a hermit” after spending months applying to up to thirty jobs every day and ceasing to see friends because he felt he couldn’t afford it. Then an insurance claims agency called back in December. He began in February. He made a bid on a home. He registered as an Independent instead of a Republican.
There is a silver lining to his story, but it’s the kind that appears only after a long period of hardship. Many former employees are still approaching a year of unemployment or underemployment, according to Hope Rahill, director of people and culture at Work for America, who spoke with CNBC. The previous report
Despite estimates from other government agencies that it cost the government $21.7 billion, DOGE has claimed to have saved hundreds of billions. The Internal Revenue Service projected that DOGE-driven cuts would cost taxpayers more than $500 billion in lost revenue; another independent analysis estimated that DOGE cuts will cost taxpayers $135 billion.
Wikipedia These figures are astounding and do not yet take into consideration the long-term costs associated with institutional knowledge simply disappearing. You haven’t saved money when you fire the entire CDC childhood lead poisoning team during a lead crisis in Milwaukee’s public schools, which is precisely what happened, and then covertly rehire them weeks later. With an invoice attached, you’ve caused mayhem.
It’s important to keep in mind that the rehiring agencies aren’t acting out of compassion. As they struggle to carry out some of President Trump’s top policy priorities or carry out basic operations, agencies that were ordered to drastically reduce their workforces are now hiring back hundreds of workers.
NPR Prior to hurricane season, the National Weather Service was granted special permission to hire 125 new specialists after losing over 560 employees. Food safety scientists were rehired by the FDA. Following a spike in egg prices, the USDA halted planned layoffs at bird flu response facilities. It turns out that those individuals were essential to the system.
When former federal employees accepted a deferred resignation offer that Musk had started earlier in the year, the largest decline in the federal workforce—more than 150,000—occurred in October. Overall, the number of federal employees has decreased by over 270,000 since the start of the year.
Yahoo Finance Despite this, federal spending increased rather than decreased during the same time frame. The deficit increased. The promised efficiency did not materialize; instead, the employees simply departed.
As I’ve watched this develop over the past year, it seems more like disruption with an ideology attached than reform. Some did manage to secure better-paying positions in the private sector. It’s a real part. However, for every Casey Hollowell who eventually gets the interview, there is a Kit Rees taking out a $15,000 loan while stacking shelves at a hardware store, or a Morgan Hall hospitalized for severe depression after losing her job at CDC.
Earlier this month, Rees found employment in their industry, but it came with a salary reduction of over $30,000. The CNN The administration’s triumphant private sector narrative isn’t exactly like that.
The truth is that while some of these workers are doing better, the majority are not, and the government that fired them is finding it difficult to continue operating without them. In five years, things might look different. Whether the disruption will ever result in the anticipated savings is still up in the air. The fact that many people paid a very high personal cost for an experiment that even its creator, Elon Musk, acknowledges he wouldn’t repeat is undeniable.
