A 34-year-old teacher in Auckland is currently opening her KiwiSaver app for the third time today and noticing that her balance, which was comfortably at $38,000 last month, has significantly decreased. She’s not by herself. Millions of people in New Zealand are doing the same thing: reviewing, recalculating, and performing nervous mental math regarding retirement timelines. Oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel due to the Iranian conflict. Expectations for inflation are shifting once more. Because they are personal to KiwiSaver members, global share markets are swinging in ways that feel intimate. It is reflected in real time by the balance.
It makes perfect sense to act now, change into something safer, or halt the bleeding. Additionally, historically, it’s nearly always the incorrect course of action. The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 was the most blatant example of this in recent market history. Many KiwiSaver members moved from growth funds to conservative ones after the world markets plummeted in March of that year, locking in their losses just before the markets experienced one of the fastest recoveries ever. Members who did nothing but remain in growth funds saw their balances not only recover but keep rising. Members who switched either missed the rebound completely or returned later, after a significant portion of the recovery had already occurred.
| Topic | KiwiSaver — New Zealand’s Voluntary Retirement Savings Scheme |
|---|---|
| Full Name | KiwiSaver |
| Country | New Zealand |
| Established | 2007 |
| Nature | Voluntary work-based savings scheme; funds cannot be withdrawn except for specific purposes (first home, retirement, hardship) |
| Fund Types | Conservative, Balanced, Growth, Aggressive |
| Cumulative Return (Growth Funds, 2007–2026) | ~240% (typical growth fund since inception) |
| Current Market Pressure | Iran conflict; oil prices risen from ~$60 to $100+ per barrel; inflation fears |
| Impact on Balances | Some members seeing 5%+ drops over recent months |
| Key Risk of Panic Switching | Locking in losses; missing market recovery days |
| Strategy: Dollar-Cost Averaging | Regular contributions buy more shares when prices fall — naturally building position during downturns |
| Historical Context | KiwiSaver members survived 2008 GFC, 2020 COVID crash, trade wars, and inflation spikes — growth funds recovered and grew substantially each time |
| Key Providers Referenced | ANZ Investments, Booster, Generate KiwiSaver |
| Expert Referenced | Aaron Gilbert, Professor of Finance, Auckland University of Technology |
| Reference | Sorted NZ — KiwiSaver Fund Finder |
In The Conversation in March 2026, Aaron Gilbert, a professor of finance at Auckland University of Technology, stated unequivocally that since the launch of KiwiSaver in 2007, members of typical growth funds have seen cumulative returns of about 240 percent while enduring trade wars, the global financial crisis, COVID, and a punishing inflation cycle. At the time, every episode seemed like a potential long-term change. They weren’t. The 1970s oil shock, which caused fuel rationing and economic disruption not seen since the 1920s and sent the Dow Jones down about 40%, is depicted by the S&P 500 on a 100-year chart as a tiny notch on an otherwise rising line. From a sufficient distance, the current crisis will almost certainly appear similar, regardless of its full scope.
Dollar-cost averaging, which operates silently in the background while the headlines shout, is what makes volatile times truly helpful for long-term KiwiSaver investors. Every pay period, the majority of KiwiSaver members make contributions. These contributions purchase fewer units in the fund during periods of high markets. The same contribution purchases more when markets decline. When a member contributes $100 per month and their fund’s unit price drops from $10 to $5, they double their unit count rather than losing money on new contributions. Those extra units bought at the bottom of the market are significantly more valuable than units bought at the top when prices eventually rise, as they have in the past. In this mechanical sense, volatility is not a long-term investor’s worst enemy. It’s a feature. When you see the number on your screen decrease, it simply doesn’t feel that way.
When you consider what happens to investors who attempt to time the market by moving in and out, the argument for sticking with it becomes even more compelling. In a March 2026 article, Generate KiwiSaver noted that missing even a few of the market’s biggest one-day gains can significantly lower long-term returns. The best days in a market are frequently the ones that follow the worst ones; these are the kind of sudden, sharp increases that only benefit investors. Sitting in cash or bonds while those recovery days go by without you is what it means to wait for things to settle in a conservative fund. It’s like running for cover just before a rainbow appears in terms of money.
This is not to argue that all KiwiSaver members should completely disregard their funds. In certain situations, it makes sense to review your fund type. For example, if you’re going to use your savings for your first home purchase in two or three years, or if you’re getting close to retirement, investing in a growth fund during a protracted downturn poses significant timing risk. However, that kind of review ought to be based on your objectives and timeline rather than last week’s changes in oil prices. The difference is important. It makes sense to switch because your situation has changed. The evidence gathered over several market cycles makes it pretty evident that switching because the headlines scared you is almost never the right decision.
Seeing this pattern recur with every new crisis—oil shock, pandemic, financial crisis, geopolitical tension—gives the impression that choosing the right fund or contributing at the appropriate level is the most difficult aspect of long-term investing. It involves controlling the emotional urge to take action when the equilibrium is upset. The best advice is still almost insultingly straightforward: stop checking so often if you won’t need the money for more than five years. Continue to contribute. Allow the dollar-cost averaging to operate in the background. The market bounces back. It has consistently done so. When things got tough, the investors who performed well did not act quickly. They were the ones who remained motionless.
